Blood Calculus
It’s all about math, really. I call it “blood calculus”…the implicit or explicit process of balancing lives lost against the various things which make modern life possible. The reality is that our modern life (and let’s face it…all life) is not possible without a certain amount of death factored in. And whether or not we realize it, we live with the results of those calculations every day.
I’ve referred to this before, most often in terms of the consequences of gun control. For example, gun control advocates will point out that if there were no guns, there would be no gun deaths. Considered in a vacuum, this is accurate. But the real world doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and in the real world it would be impossible to remove all guns. And even if you could, at least some of those gun deaths would be replaced by knife deaths, sword deaths, club deaths…whatever. So you have to do the math…the blood calculus…of lives saved versus lives lost. But that’s a fairytale. Those of us in the real world consider that gun control only removes legal guns, while criminals remain indifferent to the law and keep theirs. And again, you now have to do the blood calculus of how many lives you might save by removing the legal guns, against the lives of a disarmed citizenry which will be lost to criminals armed with illegal guns.
Today we find ourselves in a similar situation, facing the problem of how to save everyone from COVID-19 without losing lives to other causes. Of course, this is not possible. You and I both know that. But between power drunk politicians and a mass media which sells ads by stoking fear, much of America has been sold the storyline that no cost, no sacrifice is too great in the fight against COVID-19.
Almost every expert and politician who talks of saving lives during the pandemic speaks only in terms of saving them from the virus. What we do not see is any consideration of the cost of mitigation measures in terms of lives lost to their impact. None of them have either the stomach or (more likely) the honesty to perform the blood calculus of balancing lives saved from COVID-19 against lives lost to a society which has become anti-social by design, and to an economy shuttered by fears of a virus which is about 98% survivable. Businesses (and the lives they support) have been and will continue to be destroyed by economic lockdowns. Mental health issues such as depression, addiction, and suicide are on the rise. We have yet to learn the real consequences of delayed (or completely skipped) preventative health measures such as colonoscopies, mammograms, and other preventative or maintenance procedures…but there will be consequences.
When the fallacy of “if it saves one life” rears its ugly head…and it is ugly…it is done with ignorance (often willful) of the lives cost to save the one. While it may seem callous to reduce lives lost versus lives saved to mere numbers…a cost/benefit calculation…and virtuous to do the opposite and spare no expense to save one life, it is not realistic.
We live with the benefits of blood calculus every day. Although somewhere around 35k-40k lives are lost in traffic accidents annually, we are allowed to drive cars at relatively high speeds, although lowering the speed limit…let’s say to 15 mph nationwide…would certainly save at least one life. “But Dave,” you protest, “Speed limits that low would also cost lives. Emergency vehicles would have to slow down, and slower response times would cost lives.” There you go…now you’re doing it! You’re doing the blood calculus.
Let’s do another one. Let’s do peanuts. Something like 100 people die every year in the United States from allergic reactions to peanuts, so let’s ban peanuts and save a life. “That’s crazy! You can’t ban peanuts! That would destroy an entire industry, put everyone from Mr. Peanut on down out of work!” Come on, man. Are you really willing to sacrifice 100 lives for filthy money? Let everyone in the peanut business learn to code, or go on welfare. Isn’t it worth it to save one life? If you can honestly do the analysis, you know that it very much is not worth it. You’re doing blood calculus.
Now do it for COVID-19…
“If it saves one life, buts costs…”
