Seriously

I wish I could figure out how to monetize the phrase, “you need to take this seriously.” Because if I could, with all the internet scolds out there wagging their fingers as those of us reluctant to live in an economically depressed police state because of a virus…well, let’s just say I could go ahead and retire.

The thing is, “serious” is not a binary, on or off condition. There are degrees of seriousness, and it is entirely appropriate to adjust your level of seriousness proportionately to the risk. But let’s talk about risk for a moment, both how we assess it, and how we mitigate it. In assessing the risk itself, the simplest way to look at it is by considering the likelihood that something might happen at all, and then considering how bad it would be if it did. A common way to phrase it is “odds and stakes,” as in what are the odds, and what are the stakes.

For example, in the United States as of March 27, you had 263 chances in 1 million of testing positive for the COVID-19 coronavirus. That’s the odds. Based on current fatality rates, about 6 of those 263 positive cases will die…and that means that you have about 6 chances in a million of dying from the virus. There’s your stakes.

Now that we have an idea of what odds and stakes are presented by a particular risk (and that’s not to say they can’t change, for the better or for the worse), we have to consider what measures to take to mitigate it. When we look at mitigation, there are also a couple of considerations to take into account…effectiveness and cost.

Clearly, any action we take in the interest of mitigating a risk should at least have some likelihood of being effective. Simple example: I don’t want to trip on my untied shoelaces, so I carry a rabbit’s foot in my pocket. While it might make me feel better, there’s no evidence or expectation that it would actually change the probability of me tripping on my shoelaces. On the other hand, if I double knot my shoelaces they are much more likely to stay tied, reducing the risk of me tripping on them. That’s an objectively effective mitigation measure.

The other mitigation factor is cost. And cost doesn’t just have to be money. It could be time, effort, or some other price that must be paid to enact the measure. It does cost me an extra second or two to finish the double knot in my shoelaces, but it’s a very minor price to pay for the reduction in risk of tripping on my shoelaces (and with the added benefit that I likely will not have to stop and re-tie them later).

Double-knotting your shoelaces works, and won’t cost you any liberty.

That’s a pretty serious risk analysis over something as simple as shoelaces, huh? Sure it is. And our current pandemic situation is much more complex, and in the odds/stakes equation the overall risk itself is obviously much greater.

But the potential cost of the mitigation measures we are taking in our attempt to combat the coronavirus pandemic…by essentially shutting down the US economy and unleashing the power of the state to restrict liberty…is also much greater. I suppose the question comes down to how much damage we are willing to inflict on our economic stability, and how much of our hard-won freedom are we willing to sacrifice in the name of saving an (as yet) unknown number of lives from death by disease.

And before you start beating the “if it saves one life” drum, I’d ask you consider how many American lives have already been laid down in the name of liberty. From the American Revolution on, hundreds of thousands have died to make and keep a free and prosperous United States of America.

Yes, I take this pandemic seriously. But I take the ultimate preservation of this nation and what it stands for even more so. I hope you do, too, and think carefully before you surrender those things too readily.